# Europe’s 2026 Energy Crisis: How Geopolitics Is Reshaping the Green Transition **Date de l'événement :** 05/05/2026 * Publié le 05/05/2026 ### Date 30/04/2026 ## Chapô **The resurgence of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, most notably the 2026 Iran crisis, has sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, while disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows, have intensified concerns about supply security and price volatility. For Europe, this moment represents both a stress test and a potential turning point. Professor Anil Duman examines how the 2026 energy shock triggered by escalating conflict in the Middle East is reshaping Europe’s green transition, simultaneously accelerating decarbonization while testing political support for climate policies under rising economic pressure.** ## Corps du texte The resurgence of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, most notably the 2026 Iran crisis, has sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, while disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows, have intensified concerns about supply security and price volatility. For Europe, this moment represents both a stress test and a potential turning point. Historically, energy crises have often acted as catalysts for structural change. The current shock appears no different. The ongoing oil crisis has already prompted governments to reassess their reliance on fossil fuels, accelerating investments in renewables, electrification, and nuclear energy. For example, in several European countries, rising fossil fuel prices have triggered a renewed surge in rooftop solar adoption, as households and firms seek protection from volatile energy costs. Similarly, policymakers are doubling down on strategies to reduce import dependence and insulate economies from external shocks. However, the picture is far from straightforward. In the short term, the same crisis is also exposing the limits of the energy transition. Supply disruptions and infrastructure constraints, particularly in gas markets, have forced some governments to reconsider or delay climate policies, expand fossil fuel capacity, or invest in nuclear energy as a stopgap. At the heart of the current moment lies a fundamental paradox. Rising energy costs both reinforce and undermine support for climate policies. They reinforce it by exposing the vulnerabilities of fossil fuel dependence. Europe’s continued exposure to global oil and gas markets, despite progress since the Russian war, has once again demonstrated the strategic risks of imported energy. In this context, renewables offer not only environmental benefits but also resilience and sovereignty. For instance, higher fossil fuel prices can strengthen support for renewable energy. As clean technologies become more cost competitive, citizens may increasingly view them as a pathway to energy independence and price stability. The rapid uptake of solar panels across Europe illustrates how economic incentives can shift behavior quickly. Yet the same price increases risk undermining political support for the transition. Energy prices are not merely an economic variable, but they can be politically explosive. The sharp increase in fuel and electricity costs is already feeding into inflation, eroding household purchasing power, and dampening consumer confidence across Europe. Such conditions provide a fertile ground for political discontent. Carbon pricing, environmental regulations, and green taxes may become politically contentious if they are associated with higher living costs. We have already seen the series of nationwide protests in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in response to rapidly rising fuel prices and broader cost-of-living pressures. These could easily spread to other countries. If decarbonization is perceived as exacerbating economic hardship, governments may face pressure to slow down or dilute their climate ambitions. Indeed, debates within the EU already point to possible trade-offs between affordability and sustainability.  This tension is likely to define European energy politics in the coming years. The challenge for policymakers is to reconcile the long-term imperative of decarbonization with the short-term demands of economic stability and social fairness. As our project underscores, this requires carefully designed policy responses, including social protection mechanisms, targeted compensation for affected workers and regions, and investments in green skills and infrastructure to mitigate the uneven costs of the transition. The political implications of these dynamics are likely to vary across Europe, but several broad trends are already discernible. In our research, three trends stand out. First, energy insecurity tends to favor parties emphasizing affordability and national control over energy resources. This may benefit populist or Eurosceptic actors who frame climate policy as an elite driven project disconnected from everyday concerns. Second, the crisis may deepen existing cleavages between winners and losers of the green transition. Green transition reshapes labor markets and economic structures, creating both winners and losers across sectors, occupations, and regions. Those most exposed to energy price increases are also more likely to oppose costly climate measures. Third, these dynamics are also likely to differ across Europe’s regions. In Central and Eastern Europe, where fossil fuel dependency is higher, voters may become even more skeptical of ambitious climate policies given the geopolitical risks. In Western Europe, where renewable sources are more developed, support for climate action may prove more resilient, though still conditional on governments’ ability to manage cost-of-living pressures. Whether this moment ultimately strengthens or weakens the green transition in Europe will depend on political choices. Policies that cushion households from price shocks, invest in infrastructure, and frame climate action as a pathway to security rather than sacrifice will be essential. Additionally, sustaining political support across Europe will require recognizing that member states face very different structural constraints, making a one-size-fits-all approach to climate policy both economically and politically untenable. In the absence of flexibility and accommodating policies, there is a high risk of a fragmented political landscape, where rising energy costs fuel resistance to climate policies, slowing the transition precisely when it is most urgently needed. This piece was initially published in the [CIVICA Experts in the Spotlight](https://www.civica.eu/news-events/news-blog/detail/geopolitics-and-europes-green-transition-how-the-2026-energy-crisis-is-shaping-climate-policy-energy-security-and-political-stability) series, featuring professors and researchers from the 10 institutions of the European university alliance, CIVICA. **Licence :** `#CC-BY-ND (Attribution, Pas de modification)` ### Thématique `#Environnement` `#Europe` `#Géopolitique` **Langue :** `#Anglais` --- ### Navigation pour IA - [Index de tous les contenus](https://conference.sciencespo.fr/llms.txt) - [Plan du site (Sitemap)](https://conference.sciencespo.fr/sitemap.xml) - [Retour à l'accueil](https://conference.sciencespo.fr/)